Our tipster Jones Knows has got you covered for the football feast on Boxing Day as he offers his insight across an exciting Premier League fixture list.
Newcastle vs Nottingham Forest, Boxing Day 12.30pm
Those that followed me in on Luton beating Newcastle 1-0 at 14/1 on Saturday, well played. But I must put down my trumpet and switch my view completely on Eddie Howe’s team now they are playing at home once again. It’s chalk and cheese form.
The home crowd make such a massive difference to the intensity and bite of Newcastle’s performances. They’ve won their last seven Premier League games at St James’ Park, conceding just one goal. I’d be surprised if they don’t deliver at 4/9 with Sky Bet.
The midfield battle won’t be for the faint-hearted. Ryan Yates vs Bruno Guimaraes will be full-blooded. No Premier League player has made more fouls per 90 than Yates (3.04) since the start of last season while Guimaraes and Yates himself are in the top five for fouls won across the Premier League during that same timeframe.
Sky Bet aren’t taking any chances with their respective fouls and cards prices but there could be a way of attaining some value by combining their numbers in the Bet Builder. It’s 13/1 for both to be carded and 35/1 is on offer if you include the pair to make two fouls each along with picking up a booking.
Fulham, eh? They are a predictor’s nightmare.
They’ve gone from scoring 15 goals in four Premier League games to drawing blanks against Newcastle and Burnley. The volatility of football is on show right there. Or perhaps it shows the importance of possessing a confident and firing centre-forward within your ranks.
Raul Jimenez, sent off early on at Newcastle, missed the 2-0 reverse to Burnley and is still missing for this one. Contrast that with Bournemouth striker Dominic Solanke, whose hat-trick at Nottingham Forest took him to eight goals in his last seven Premier League outings. Back the form horse, a wise man once told me. Simple yet effective advice. Solanke can score again in a home win at 5/2 with Sky Bet.
This may not immediately scream game of the day – but such is the importance of it, we may just have a cracker on our hands.
There is likely to be only a handful of games a season both these teams will put into the winnable category and this one fits the bill for both. Three points will be the aim. Six-pointer, indeed.
The goals market is where my interest has sparked with 10/11 being offered up on the game producing over 2.5 goals.
I’ve bored readers with how the average goals-per-game ratio is at record levels this season in the Premier League so any game where near Evens is available for overs automatically enters calculations as a potential bet. There have been eight goals in the two meetings this season between Burnley, Sheffield United and Luton – a small sample size yes, but an indication of how these types of games will produce more attacking intent than what the expected models are spitting out. I’m expecting excitement and goals.
One of my betting inclinations is to back a full-back in the shots market when they play on their ‘wrong side’.
Kyle Walker-Peters and Joao Cancelo were prime examples of money-making opportunities as the likelihood of shots increases substantially with them liable to cut in towards goal onto their stronger foot. We might have another player to have fun with. Step forward Joe Gomez. The right footer is likely to be filling in down the left flank for Liverpool with Andy Robertson and now Kostas Tsimikas in the treatment room.
Although he’s yet to score for Liverpool, his shots data is spiking, showcasing a clear understanding and liking for playing a more attacking role that swims against what the market expects.
In his last 171 minutes of action in all competitions, he’s posted five shots with two of them hitting the target. With license to join the attacks playing for an attack-minded manager, there is huge potential about the 100/30 with Sky Bet on him having two or more shots against a team odds-on to be relegated. His first goalscorer price of 40/1 also appeals.
A fascinating encounter this one and one where Aston Villa will be popular at 7/4 with Sky Bet for the away win. I’ve got eyes elsewhere though for a potential angle in
Antony is slowly developing into a reliable customer for Erik ten Hag out of possession as his performances of late have shown a marked increase in defensive responsibilities. He’s certainly mucking in for the cause albeit without showing the attacking output his bulky price tag suggests.
This increased tenacity can be seen through his recent tackle numbers which are on the increase and are providing a bit of value in the tackles markets with Sky Bet. He’s made 18 in his last five starts for United, so if he can continue along this trajectory in a game where he’ll be asked to do plenty of tracking back-up against Villa’s proactive left-side, then the 5/4 on him making two or more tackles and 4/1 to make three or more tackles are live runners.
