You don’t need complicated statistics to tell you Liverpool have improved on last season. The Reds have scored more, conceded fewer, and won more games – football can sometimes be that simple.
In the league, Liverpool’s five more goals, nine fewer conceded and 13 more points mean the Reds have jumped from ninth after 19 games to first.
Of course, football isn’t linear, but if you were to double Liverpool’s statistics to forecast what the Reds’ final total would be, they would likely finish short of the title.
Projected points
Liverpool are forecast to score 78 league goals, concede 32 and rack up 84 points. In comparison to the Reds’ totals last season, come the end of the campaign, they would have netted three more goals, conceded 15 fewer and finished 17 points better off.
This obviously isn’t how life works, and Liverpool are highly unlikely to finish with that same record, but it is interesting to see how those projected final totals compare to other teams’ previous years.
For example, while Liverpool are now top of the table, the prospective total of 84 points would only be enough to finish second last season, five points behind Man City.
In order to find the last team to win the league with 84 points or less, you must go back to Leicester in 2016 (81). Before Leicester, it was 2011, when Man United won with just 80 on the board.
Up your game
All this basically means Liverpool need to up their game even further if they are to win the Premier League this season.
In the last couple of seasons, this is something Klopp’s men have managed to do. Last campaign, the Reds won nine more points in the second half of the season than in the first half, and the year before it was four points more.
In the graph below, you can see how Klopp’s team have got better as the season has gone on in the previous five campaigns.
Unless injuries get in the way, you can see that happening again, but to what extent will determine where the Premier League trophy ends up in May.
Of course, the ability of other teams plays the second biggest factor in all this. Man City could still go on an incredible run, and so could Arsenal.
In fact, Liverpool managed 51 points in the first half of 2018/19, and still finished second. With 44 points, the same happened in 2021/22, when they were pipped to the title, again, by Pep Guardiola’s side.
Should City drop points three points in their game in hand, though improbable, it would mean they are statistically unlikely to win the league.
And as per Opta, Guardiola’s side are, incredibly, only two points worse off now compared to this stage last season.
Liverpool, meanwhile, have had the third-best turnaround in the division with 13 points, but it is West Ham (18) and Aston Villa (14) who lead the way when comparing the first 19 games this season to the same stage in 2022/23.
Comparing Klopp
Burnley manager Vincent Kompany recently said: “In terms of intensity, they (Liverpool) are getting back to the levels that I’ve known when I was facing them as a player.”
While they are clearly not there yet, depending on the form of other teams, that incredible level may not be needed this season.
The Reds are only two points worse off than they were in 2021/22, when they almost won a historic quadruple.
