When FSG first took charge at Liverpool, ‘Moneyball’ was a real buzzword among supporters. In truth, any new owners would have been gratefully received at that point in time, but there was particular intrigue about John Henry’s transfer strategy of choice.
That was supercharged a short while later by the 2011 release of ‘Moneyball’, a film charting Billy Beane’s pioneering use of the approach in baseball. There is a moment when the character, portrayed by Brad Pitt, is approached by Henry for a job at the Boston Red Sox, FSG’s franchise in the MLB.
Beane would ultimately turn that down. He never joined up with Liverpool, either, despite repeated suggestions it could happen (eg The Mirror). But FSG nonetheless took the approach and baked it into their recruitment practices across all of their teams.
It delivered a World Series for the Red Sox, and Liverpool fans were quick to spot the presence of Moneyball-style deals at Anfield. The transfer of Philippe Coutinho, underappreciated at Inter Milan but with good underlying numbers, appeared to be a case in point — his record sale to Barcelona a few years later, ultimately funding the side that won the Champions League and Premier League, was the ultimate vindication of the strategy.
But as Liverpool has grown in stature under Jürgen Klopp, the prevalence of Moneyball has diminished. After all, while FSG can still find hidden gems, it’s far harder to find a space for them in one of the world’s best teams.
Meanwhile, as in baseball, the rest of the Premier League has gradually caught up with FSG’s data-led approach. Liverpool can still claim to boast an edge, but margins are constantly shrinking.
Even so, there’s at least one aspect of Moneyball that fans think might still be operational at Anfield. One of the most quoted lines from the film is “we can recreate him in the aggregate”, the idea being that multiple shrewd signings can match the impact of a player who cannot be replaced directly.
Liverpool was never strictly trying to ‘replace’ Jude Bellingham, having never signed him in the first place. But FSG had to pivot their transfer plans once it became clear that the Borussia Dortmund starlet was bound for Real Madrid.
So far, most would argue that the alternative recruitment has been a success. Dominik Szoboszlai hit world-class levels of his own for the first couple of months, Ryan Gravenberch started pretty brightly as well, while Alexis Mac Allister has been a more understated but consistent presence from a slightly deeper role.
Wataru Endō was something of a classic ‘Moneyball’ move, as it happens, with Liverpool spotting an undervalued player at a team where most big sides wouldn’t usually shop. But it’s the other trio who have perhaps recreated Bellingham in the aggregate.
Browsing FBref recently, I spotted a curious quirk. In the ‘similar players’ matrix, the top four closest midfielders to Bellingham were all from Liverpool, including all three of the summer signings (plus Harvey Elliott).
Posting this observation to X, my replies and quote tweets were flooded with Moneyball references. I’ve seen the same GIF many times over now.
Also among the replies was Liverpool.com writer David Comerford, who jokingly remarked I had ‘unlocked’ Liverpool’s entire scouting network. That’s clearly not the case, but many think I might have hit upon something about the FSG transfer plan.
Questions can be asked about the legitimacy of the comparison, especially with Bellingham having played in such an advanced role for Real Madrid over the last few months — that has skewed the data. But I’ve never seen one club so represented in the similar players section before, and it’s unlikely to be a total coincidence.
Really, it’s not especially groundbreaking that Liverpool might go for similar profiles after missing out on a top target. And while football doesn’t generally lend itself to ‘replacing in the aggregate’, with only 11 spaces on the team and limited substitutions, it was always going to require a collective effort to match the all-round excellence of Bellingham.
Liverpool has assembled a midfield core of players who can do a bit of everything, as Mac Allister’s stint in the number six role has demonstrated. While none of them reach the individual heights of Bellingham, they have collectively propelled Klopp’s side from also-rans to the top of the table, with a good chance in four competitions. Maybe Moneyball is back.
