A straw poll to determine which player is most important to Liverpool’s attack in 2023/24 would have Mohamed Salah as the runaway victor. And how could it not? The Egyptian has scored 18 goals when none of his colleagues is yet in double figures, and he still holds a four-goal advantage if we discount penalties.
Goals have always been the main currency in football and they always will be. As data analysis evolved in the sport, assists have also grown in popularity to become a well-known metric too. Perhaps surprisingly, Darwin Núñez is currently the Reds’ top man for 2023/24 for this stat, with 10 goals created, though Salah is next in line with eight, tied for second place with Trent Alexander-Arnold.
Thankfully for analysts everywhere, the evolution of football data didn’t end there. It’s now possible to account for contributions made earlier in attacking moves. Looking at these statistics makes a case that Diogo Jota has in fact been the Reds’ most vital forward in 2023/24, at least on a pro-rata basis.
Understat carries a metric called xGChain, which is defined as the “total xG of every possession the player is involved in per 90 minutes.” Núñez leads the way for Liverpool — as you’d expect from a shot monster — with 1.21, with Harvey Elliott (1.08), Jota (1.06) and Salah (1.00) the other players in the squad to average at least one.
As it stands, this season is the best of Jota’s six in the Premier League for this metric and a step up from the 0.87 he averaged across his first three campaigns with Liverpool. It’s the same story for his xGBuildup, which works on the same principle as xGChain but with shots and key passes removed. Jota is second in the Reds’ standings with a career best average of 0.65 per 90, behind only Elliott (0.73) and he has amassed almost twice as many minutes as the young midfielder in any case.
Sceptics regarding advanced analysis in football would point out such metrics are unnecessary when it comes to evaluating Jota’s importance. He has scored non-penalty goals as often as Salah across their respective Liverpool careers and is only 0.08 per 90 behind him if we add in assists too. Their differing fitness records obviously gives the Reds’ number 11 a distinct edge, but Jota contributes almost as often when on the field and he can’t do much more than that.
There’s another reason to believe his value has gone up a notch this season, though, at least when it comes to moves which end in goals. The Understat metrics look at all shots in the Premier League but Opta’s dashboards allow anyone to see who is involved in goal-ending possession sequences in that and other competitions too.
Salah has played some part in 36 Liverpool goals in 2023/24, ahead of Núñez (29), Alexander-Arnold (27) and Dominik Szoboszlai (24). However, Jota is next with 23 and, thanks to playing less, the Portuguese international is top of the standings on a per 90 minutes basis.
The former Wolves man has been in red-hot form on this front since returning from injury. Jota came off the bench to score at Burnley, played a part in all three goals while on the pitch against Newcastle — including winning a penalty — and then assisted Luis Díaz at Arsenal. He won the ball for the equalizer and played the pre-assist for the winner last time out against Fulham too.
Added to his efforts earlier in the season, Jota has been involved in 23 of the 34 goals Liverpool has scored while he has been playing. His 67.6 per cent hit rate is the best in the squad and would be further clear of second place Salah (65.5 per cent) if penalties were ignored.
With the Egyptian on international duty at the Cup of Nations, it is imperative that Jota maintains his form for contributing to goals to keep Liverpool in contention in the league and both domestic cups. How ever detailed you like your metrics, the evidence is there that he will.
