Our tipster Jones Knows provides his betting insight and analysis across all 10 Premier League games as he hunts some value in Sky Bet’s markets.
I’m losing faith with Everton, who look to be running out of steam and confidence in front of goal.
It’s now just four goals scored in their last nine games. Sean Dyche’s team are surely going to need to score twice to win this one as Spurs are reliable at finding the net having scored in their last 34 Premier League games. The away side look fair enough at 4/6 with Sky Bet on the draw no bet market.
No team have attempted more long passes this season (1,366) and only Liverpool have attempted more passes into the opposition half than Everton (1,424) – two key pointers towards direct play into the attacker. Calvert-Lewin himself has been flagged offside 10 times in his last nine starts whilst opposition centre-forwards Ivan Toney and Rasmus Hojlund both were flagged twice in Tottenham’s last two games.
Brighton vs Crystal Palace, Saturday 3pm – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
Brighton’s complete capitulation at Luton perhaps shouldn’t have come as a surprise.
Roberto De Zerbi’s side have won just three of their last 16 Premier League games, scoring just 20 goals in that period. Only Everton, Crystal Palace and Sheffield United have scored fewer in the same timeframe. That’s now beginning to become a healthy sample size – and it’s backed up by a drastic decline of their attacking metrics under De Zerbi.
Since beating Bournemouth in September, Brighton’s goals, expected goals, shots and big chances created per 90 have plummeted compared to where they were towards the back end of last season.
Roy Hodgson knows exactly how to play the frustration game on Brighton’s style having restricted them to just four goals in his last five games against them as Palace boss. Six of the last nine meetings between these two have finished 1-1 whilst all those encounters, bar one, have fallen under the 2.5 goals line. Palace look a great bet to avoid defeat in the double chance market at 11/10 with Sky Bet. A Palace win to nil at 9/1 also shouldn’t be sniffed at.
SCORE PREDICTION: 0-1 | JONES KNOWS’ BEST BET: Crystal Palace double chance (11/10 with Sky Bet)
Burnley vs Fulham, Saturday 3pm – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
Fulham are due a win at Burnley.
Somehow the Clarets have remained unbeaten in the last 31 matches at Turf Moor in all competitions, winning 25 times. It’s a run that spans 73 years. Remarkable. Thoughts with the Fulham fans out there that regularly make the journey there.
This might be the game though to break the hoodoo. Sky Bet have them at 7/5 to pick up three points – that’s a 42 per cent chance. Remember, Burnley, albeit improving, have the worst home record in the Premier League, winning just four points from 11 games, losing nine. Away win.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2
Newcastle vs Luton, Saturday 3pm – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
Sign me up for the total corner count.
When Newcastle are at their best, they are a corner-winning machine. They won 270 corners last season in the Premier League, the most of any team. I’ve been waiting for them to return to form with eyes firmly fixed on their corner count lines and now is the time to back them following their very impressive performance at Aston Villa.
Meanwhile, regular readers know all about my obsession with Luton’s ability to win corners. They racked up seven at home to Brighton, taking their tally to 49 corners in their last six fixtures. I’m fully expecting both teams to play with confidence and attacking intent, so corner-winning opportunities should be rife at both ends.
Premier League games are averaging 10.6 corners per 90 minutes this season, up on last year’s average of 10.1, probably owing to the extra added time. This game should surpass that number, therefore the 5/6 with Sky Bet on 11 or more corners in the match being awarded rates as a fantastic value play. As do 14 or more (3/1), 15 or more (9/2) and 16 or more (7/1) – all of which look likely to give you a great run at nice prices.
SCORE PREDICTION: 3-1 | JONES KNOWS’ BEST BET: 11 or more total match corners (4/5 with Sky Bet)
Sheffield United vs Aston Villa, Saturday 5.30pm, live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
