Field Yates is a fantasy football expert and NFL draft analyst for ESPN. You can find him on Fantasy Football Now on Sunday mornings and regularly on NFL Live throughout the week, as well as the Fantasy Focus and First Draft podcasts. A graduate of Wesleyan University (CT) and native of Weston, Mass., Yates has previous experience interning with the New England Patriots on both their coaching and scouting staffs.
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One element of any NFL draft that keeps us all on our toes is the possibility of a trade — or more accurately, several of them — in the first round.
The reality is that almost any team could make a trade on Day 1, but forecasting the more minor moves is hard to do; they are often the byproduct of how the board unfolds once the event begins. Last year, we saw 43 total trades over the three days of the draft (a record for the common draft era, per ESPN Stats & Information), and seven of them happened during Round 1. There were nine trades in the first round the year before, too.
So who could move around on Day 1 this time around? Let’s look at teams that would be logical trade-up or trade-down candidates and pick apart the calculus behind those possible moves. We’ll start with franchises that might move up and go in order of these teams’ current first-round draft slot.
Jump to teams that could:
Trade up | Trade down
TRADE-UP CANDIDATES
New York Giants
First-round slot: No. 6
The Giants have not hid their interest in considering a quarterback in this year’s draft — Daniel Jones struggled last season before tearing his ACL — but it’s far from a certainty that one of the top four passers will be there at pick No. 6. There are so many factors the Giants must consider if they are indeed intent on a QB in Round 1, not the least of which is the cost. It sounds steep, but I would imagine that if they engaged the Cardinals at No. 4, for instance, that Arizona would start things off by asking for a 2025 first-round pick to make the deal happen. That’s a lot to move up two spots but might be what it takes if New York wants a quarterback that badly.
Interestingly, only three times in the common draft era has a team traded into the top five for a QB on draft day, most recently the Bears for Mitchell Trubisky in 2017, per ESPN Stats & Information. And New York currently has six picks total this year, tied for the second fewest in the league.
New York Jets
First-round slot: No. 10
This team is all-in this season, and if the opportunity to move up a little bit to grab one of the top three receivers is in play, would the Jets really ignore that chance? I think not, as they would have an electric offense with a healthy Aaron Rodgers throwing darts to a receiver room of Garrett Wilson, Mike Williams and, say, Washington’s Rome Odunze — as long as the protection up front holds up. The Jets don’t have a second-rounder, though,
