It’s never smart to overreact to small sample sizes. We have decades of baseball data to tell us as much. But that does not change the fact that the Orioles have felt different—more exciting—over the last week compared to the previous month.
The Orioles are 6-3 over their last nine games. In the five weeks preceding that, they were 12-18. While correlation might not equal causation, the roster transformation that has taken place recently cannot be ignored as at least a contributing factor to the turnaround.
O’s GM Mike Elias used the trade deadline (and the surrounding days) to overhaul a team that was clearly starting to lag. He added two starting pitchers, two relievers, and two platoon-type bats (three if you count the abbreviated tenure of Cristian Pache). In addition, the team promoted two of their top prospects: Jackson Holliday and Coby Mayo.
It’s a rather stunning in-season transformation for any team, but particularly one that was in first place at the time and is still considered one of the World Series favorites. So far, the results speak for themselves.
Zach Eflin, arguably the most significant recent addition, is 2-0 with a 3.65 ERA over 12.1 innings. He has struck out 10 and walked one, performing exactly as advertised.
Seranthony Domínguez has allowed one run, struck out six, and walked just one over his first five innings with the Birds. That sounds a lot like the lockdown reliever they needed.
Eloy Jiménez, the most surprising target from last week, has been great as a platoon bat. He is 5-for-9 with a double and two RBI. It’s tough to foresee a scenario in which the Orioles like him enough to pick up a $16.5 million option for next season, but this sort of production is impressive.
And the reintroduction of Holliday has been immense. In five games the rookie has seven hits, two home runs, two walks, and seven RBI. He looks far more comfortable this time around and is routinely hitting the ball with authority. It always seemed like the Orioles would give him another shot to start at some point this season, and with their current infield injury crisis, that time was now.
Of course, not all of the changes have worked yet. Trevor Rogers struggled in his debut, the same is true for Gregory Soto, and Mayo is still searching for his first career hit. But overall, things are trending in the right direction.
The roster configuration also just makes more sense now than it did a week or two ago.
Bringing in Eflin and Rogers gives the Orioles five starters that actually belong in a big league rotation. Rather than praying that Albert Suárez, Cade Povich, or Cole Irvin can survive two trips through the opposing team’s batting order, the O’s now have proven commodities.
Eflin, in particular, was important because it means the Orioles now have three starters that they trust in a playoff game. A top three of Corbin Burnes, Grayson Rodriguez, and Eflin is not as impressive as one that includes Kyle Bradish, but it’s solid, and far better than any of the internal solutions. The rotation now feels better than it has at any point since it was announced in mid June that Bradish would miss the rest of the season after undergoing Tommy John surgery.
The bullpen will benefit from this in two ways. First, using actual starters to start games should result in fewer innings on the shoulders of relievers, and the scores should be closer. Second, it allows Suárez to slot back into a relief role. He fits better there, and even had success earlier in the season (0.90 ERA over 10 relief innings from May 5-22).
Speaking of the bullpen, it is far deeper now. While they did not add a Craig Kimbrel successor, they did strengthen the middle innings. Domínguez and Soto come with a track record that surpasses the likes of Vinny Nittoli or Nick Vespi. And how about Burch Smith? He has been on the big league squad since July 11, but his role seems to be growing. You can’t argue with the results. His fastball velocity is up a tick from his time with the Marlins earlier this season (from 94.7 mph to 95.7 mph), owns a 1.37 FIP as an Oriole, and has struck out 12 over 10 innings.
And even the lineup is more logical than it was. Just a few weeks ago, there were a lot of moving pieces. Austin Hays was in and out of the lineup. Jorge Mateo would play second against lefties. Ramón Urías would play third against righties. Jordan Westburg was bouncing between positions, an oddity for an all-star. Colton Cowser had been in an offensive funk, causing Brandon Hyde to fiddle with things and get him right. It was complicated.
Now, things are simple. Austin Slater and Jiménez are platoon bats. The same is true for Ryan O’Hearn and Cedric Mullins. Urías is a bench player, right next to backup catcher James McCann. Everyone else plays everyday, apart from the occasional breather.
Of course, you don’t make a lineup based on simplicity. The players need to perform and stay healthy. The health part has been an issue for the Orioles as they are currently without Mateo and Westburg. Fortunately, they have organizational depth, but that has necessitated them starting three rookies (Cowser, Holliday, Mayo) on a daily basis these past few days. There is risk there, but for now it works.
The 2024 Orioles remain a work in progress, but they now appear far more formidable to make a postseason run. The rotation is top heavy, but competent throughout. The bullpen still misses Félix Bautista badly at the backend, but now boasts exceptional depth. The lineup has been potent all summer long, but now the pieces are all falling neatly into place. There is a lot to be excited about.
And while it does feel like this season’s team has been far more volatile than the 2023 edition, that is true of nearly every team in baseball. The Yankees’ struggles are well documented. The Phillies are in the midst of their own rough patch. We just saw the O’s go toe-to-toe with the Guardians over the weekend. The Orioles have just as good of a chance to go on a run as any other team in the league, and the recent roster changes seem to have replenished the depth and provided the wiggle room that injuries robbed them off earlier in the season.
