Chelsea have had a very interesting week in the transfer market, as proceedings with Atlético Madrid hit a stumbling block, stopping Samu Omorodion joining the Blues, and Conor Gallagher from going in the opposite direction.
The Blues have now pivoted to long-term target, Nigerian striker, Victor Osimhen, as their number one target. However, it is believed they are watching multiple striker situations develop as they assess their next move.
Osimhen made 32 appearances in all competitions last season for Napoli, scoring 17 goals, providing four assists, and totalling 2,476 minutes played.
According to reports from The Independent, Chelsea could look to test the resolve of Brentford and make an offer for striker Ivan Toney late in the window. This could be as a loan with an obligation to buy of around £60m.
Manchester United are another club stated in the reports that could make a move for the 28-year-old late in the window. Any sale would be a massive decrease on the asking price in January, which was close to £100m.
Toney made 17 Premier League appearances last season, scoring four goals, providing two assists, and totalling 1,449 minutes played.
The “remarkable” forward, as manager Thomas Frank described him, has shown his quality in the Premier League already, scoring 20 in the league last season in 33 appearances.
A 20+ goal a-season striker is something that is not easy to come by in the Premier League, and getting your hands on one, especially at Chelsea, who have failed in this department since Diego Costa, is a hard task.
For these metrics, we have decided to compare Toney’s 2022/23 season too alongside the Osimhen and Toney 2023/24 campaigns. This is due to the minute differential in the two seasons, managing 3,090 in the 2022/23 season, compared to 1,450 in the 2023/24 season.
You can instantly see from the numbers, Toney produced 0.61 goals per 90 in his 22/23 season, over double his production level this season (in fewer games). Despite accumulating 0.08 less xG per 90 than Osimhen, Toney only averaged 0.01 goals per 90 less than Osimhen.
This shows the lethal nature of the England international during that season, as he took a lower volume of shots, managed less on target, but still scored at a 0.16 goals/shot ratio. He overachieved his xG in that season by 0.04 G-xG per 90.
A reliable marksman is exactly what Chelsea need, one that can offer a significant box threat improvement too, which is certainly another asset the Bees star can bring, winning 3.35 aerials per 90. This would give Chelsea a focal point in the box, especially when facing low-block sides.
So at a cheaper fee and potentially much lower wages too, Toney could prove to be an astute move for Chelsea late in the window, especially if their Osimhen hopes slowly diminish.
