The Baltimore Orioles are still navigating their way through the offseason and trying to figure out how to get over the hump of a lack of playoff success in recent years.
There has not been a playoff victory in a decade since the Orioles run to the ALCS in 2014, being swept in their first round in all three postseason appearances since. Even after one of the most successful regular seasons in franchise history two years ago in 2023, things still ended with a three-game sweep to the eventual World Series champion Texas Rangers.
Things aren’t going to get any easier moving forward as Baltimore appears set to lose their ace in Corbin Burnes to a massive offer in free agency. But one of the things that plagued the team in 2024 was injuries, and reinforcements are on the way in the rotation. Here is the projected starting rotation to begin the 2025 season factoring in future trades or signings as well.
Cease would not exactly replace everything Burnes can bring you, but he’s the closest thing available. The soon-to-be 29-year-old had a very good season in 2024 in his first year with the San Diego Padres, posting a 3.47 ERA in 33 starts with 224 strikeouts in just 189.1 innings pitched. It was his second time finishing top-five in Cy Young voting along with his dominant 2022 season for the Chicago White Sox when he had a 2.20 ERA with 227 strikeouts in 184 innings. He would be the perfect fit at the top of the rotation if Baltimore is willing to deal some prospects, but after presumably losing Burnes, the team would have to weigh their willingness to pay him his worth once he becomes a free agent next year.
No. 2: RHP Tomoyuki Sugano
The Orioles handed the 35-year-old a one-year contract coming off one of the most decorated careers in the history of Japanese professional baseball. Though he is obviously getting up there in age and hasn’t thrown an MLB pitch in his career, Sugano seems to be getting better rather than declining. 2024 was one of the finest seasons of his 12-year NPB career, pitching to a 1.67 ERA over 24 starts with a 15-3 record. Asking him to step in as the immediate ace probably isn’t fair, so it is critical to land a No. 1 like Cease, keeping Burnes, or someone else. But if Sugano is in the No. 2 slot, the staff will be in great shape.
No. 3: RHP Zach Eflin
Though it’s already righty-heavy, Eflin is absolutely going to be a factor in the rotation. He was phenomenal down the stretch after Baltimore acquired him in a trade from the Tampa Bay Rays with a 2.60 ERA over 9 starts with the team, posting a 5-2 record. If an acquisition is made, a quality option is going to get left out of the starting rotation, but it’s not going to be Eflin.
No. 4: LHP Trevor Rogers
Just going by numbers, Rogers really shouldn’t be given a spot in the starting rotation over some other quality options. But this is a unit – especially with a potential Cease trade – that’s desperate for an impact lefty, and Rogers could be the one to get the nod. Cade Povich also could factor in here and very well could take the spot, but it seems more likely than not the Orioles go with experience over youth at least to begin the season and go from there.
No. 5: RHPs Dean Kremer/Grayson Rodriguez
A six-man rotation isn’t going to be out of the question here. Truth be told, Baltimore has enough depth to make it through the year even if they don’t acquire a new ace and both Kremer and Rodriguez were solid last season. Having both in the rotation would be preferable, but may not be necesarry depending on how things play out the rest of the offseason. Don’t forget either that Kyle Bradish, another righty, is due to return from injury and Albert Suárez is a factor as well, though a return to the bullpen is probably more likely for Suárez. The Orioles will have some serious questions to answer in what’s looking like it could be one of the most fascinating rotations in baseball, but depth is certainly not a question.
