It took longer than anticipated, but Baltimore Orioles right fielder Anthony Santander finally found a team willing to meet his asking price in free agency.
He will be facing off against his old team regularly over the next few years, as the All-Star agreed to a four-year, $92.5 million deal with their American League East rivals, the Toronto Blue Jays.
The deal could be as long as six years, as there is a player option after the 2028 season that can be voided by the team. However, if they choose to do that, another year will be tacked onto the end of the contract for 2030.
With a clear need to upgrade their lineup, specifically adding more power alongside star corner infielder Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Santander certainly fits the bill.
But, this is a deal that certainly gives the impression of a desperate team throwing a Hail Mary just so they could say they added someone to the mix to help improve the roster.
There is no denying the power that he provides is legitimate.
He hit a career-high 44 in 2024, trailing only Aaron Judge of the New York Yankees and Shohei Ohtani of the Los Angeles Dodgers, who both won the MVP awards this past season. Before that, he launched 33 and 28, as he ranks No. 6 in baseball in homers over the last three campaigns.
However, there are some huge risks being taken by the Blue Jays, which is a major reason why David Schoenfield of ESPN has given the team a brutal “C-” grade for the signing.
He compared the deal to the one signed by Teoscar Hernandez, who re-joined the Dodgers on a three-year, $66 million deal. To Schoenfield, Santander’s deal is riskier for a number of reasons.
“Hernandez is coming off a marginally better all-around season: 4.3 bWAR compared to Santander’s 2.9 bWAR (although much closer in fWAR, with Hernandez leading at 3.5 to 3.3). Hernandez also hits the ball harder (81st percentile hard-hit rate compared to 60th percentile for Santander), which is one reason to bet on him to age well,” he wrote.
Another glaring weakness in Santander’s game is the lack of impact he provides anywhere outside of his power numbers. He doesn’t offer anything with the glove defensively, projecting as someone who will be transitioning to a designated hitter’s role well before this contract is over.
Without another avenue to add WAR and value on the field, he is an incredibly risky long-term investment.
There is also the troubling trend of outfielders who are more than 30 years old seeing their production dip considerably.
As Schoenfield shared, only four outfielders who were 30 years of age or older had a bWAR of 3.0+ in 2024. There were only six in 2023.
Without making a defensive impact, it is hard to envision Santander remaining a 3+ win caliber player once he approaches his mid-30s.
Alas, Toronto had to make a move and Santander does fill a need with his power. But, Baltimore certainly made the right decision allowing him to depart and replacing him with the combination of Tyler O’Neill and former star prospect Heston Kjerstad.
