The standout fixture in Serie A this weekend comes from the Stadio Diego Armando Maradona as title chasers Napoli host European hopefuls AC Milan on Sunday (19:45, TNT Sports 1). After a brilliant first half of the campaign, Gli Azzurri’s bid for the Scudetto has faltered in recent months, with Antonio Conte’s side winning just one of their last seven games, and they now trail leaders and reigning champions Inter by three points with nine rounds of fixtures remaining.
Inter’s neighbours, meanwhile, are ninth, six points behind fourth-place Bologna, and will be eyeing revenge for a 2-0 home defeat in October’s reverse fixture at San Siro. Below are my Napoli vs AC Milan predictions, supported by all the latest team news and match odds.
David Neres is back in full training after missing Napoli’s last five games, but an inclusion on the bench against Milan is probably the best he can ask for on Sunday. His manager has changed to a 3-5-2 formation for the majority of his absence – he went 4-2-3-1 last time out – and the Brazilian winger may find it difficult to find a starting spot as things stand, particularly after just coming back from an injury.
Frank Anguissa returned from a two-game lay-off before the international break, playing the final 14 minutes of his side’s goalless draw at Venezia, and the 29-year-old midfielder should be restored to the starting XI on Sunday, probably at the expense of Billy Gilmour.
Italy international Giacomo Raspadori could continue in attack just behind Romelu Lukaku, after netting in four of his last seven outings for club and country.
Emerson Royal has returned to light training this week following a calf strain, but he’s unlikely to be seen on the pitch for a couple more weeks.
The Brazilian is Milan’s only injury absentee this weekend, but Yunus Musah will miss the trip to Naples as he serves a suspension for an accumulation of yellow cards.
Ruben Loftus-Cheek made his return from injury in the win over Como and another substitute appearance looks likely for the Englishman this weekend.
Joao Felix has been restricted to cameo roles in the last two matches, and the Portuguese playmaker is set to start a third straight one on the bench.
Napoli’s wobble isn’t hugely reflected in their price on Sunday as Gli Azzurri have been installed as 19/20 favorites, implying a 51.3% win probability, while the visitors are 11/4, or a 26.7% chance, to make it three victories in a row.
The draw is offered at 13/5, both teams to score at 4/5, and over 2.5 total goals at 10/11.
Former Inter forward Romelu Lukaku, who opened the scoring against Milan in October, is 13/8 favourite in the anytime goalscorer market, with Mexican striker Santiago Gimenez first up for I Rossoneri at 11/5.
Napoli are on an awful run, winning just once since the start of February, but they’ve only lost one of their eight games in that period, suffering a 2-1 defeat in Como where they were leading until the 77th minute.
Milan, meanwhile, may have gotten back on track after three straight defeats were followed by back-to-back wins over Lecce and Como, but they weren’t convincing in either victory, requiring second-half comebacks in both. They’ve only won six of their 14 league games away from home, losing three of their last five, conceding twice in four of them.
On Sunday, they face a Napoli side who have picked up 32 points this season at the Stadio Diego Armando Maradona – only Inter (33) have accrued more points at home.
Gli Azzurri are unbeaten in Naples since December 8, winning four of their last six league games there, all of which have gone under 3.5 total goals; in fact, Napoli are joint-top of the under 3.5 goals table in Serie A this season as 83% of their matches have seen three or fewer strikes – 13 of their 14 at home have gone under 3.5.
Conte’s side won the reverse fixture 2-0 in October, and this looks like a good game for his side to return to winning ways and keep the pressure up on Inter.
A Napoli win and under 3.5 goals at 8/5 is my best bet for Sunday’s game.
Ex-Manchester United man Scott McTominay hasn’t scored in any of his last five Napoli outings, most recently hitting the net in a 1-1 home draw with Udinese on February 9, but six strikes in 26 Serie A appearances is still an impressive return from a midfielder in his first season at the club.
The 28-year-old’s confidence should be bolstered by a goal for his country last week against Greece, who Scotland beat 1-0 in the first leg before falling to a 3-0 defeat against the same opposition on home soil last Sunday.
McTominay registered nine shots across those two games, hitting the target four times, and in Serie A this season, he’s averaging 2.2 shots per game (0.8 on target).
He seems to relish the big contests, too, netting away to Inter, Fiorentina and Atalanta.
His physicality and late runs into the box could prove too much for Milan on Sunday, and at 3/1, he’s well worth backing for a goal, in my opinion.
