Playoff positioning is on the line for the Los Angeles Lakers as they head into Oklahoma City for a Sunday matinee match-up with the Thunder. Tip-off is at 3.30 pm ET on NBA TV, I’ve come up with a tasty +1078 odds Same Game Parlay. Get predictions on the side and total for Sunday’s slate on our NBA Picks page, but now let’s get into my Lakers vs Thunder bet!
Coming into Sunday’s game the Lakers have only one thing on their mind and that is to get a win against the best team in the West. The Denver Nuggets are right behind them in the standings so it is crucial to continue winning in order to preserve that 3rd seed. LA has actually had solid success in head-to-head meetings going 5-2 ATS/SU over the last 7 games, however most of those were with Anthony Davis in the middle, so I’m not sure if we can take into account any of those results here. One thing is for sure though – you won’t get this big of a spread for a team with LeBron James and Luka Doncic on its roster often.
There is very little incentive for the Thunder to get a result here. They’ve clinched the number 1 seed in the West a long time ago, plus after their loss against Houston they can no longer win 70 games. SGA and co. would be smart to rest some players in these remaining 5 games in order to get ready for the postseason, if that’s the case then the Lakers could have a slightly easier job here. OKC’s potential flaw is in the three-point department. As we saw against Houston they were able to convert on only 13 threes which wasn’t enough to beat the 2nd best team in the West. The sense of urgency to get a result here is far greater for the Lakers. Beating the Thunder would also send a clear message that they shouldn’t be written off in a potential series down the road in the playoffs. These two teams will meet twice in the next 3 days, the Lakers are definitely winning at least one of those games. Back an LA win.
Reaves has picked up right where he left off in March, with two amazing games in the month of April. That is great news for head coach JJ Redick and the Lakers in general, as they have a stable 3rd scoring option behind Luka Doncic and LeBron James. Over his last 10 games Reaves is averaging 25.3 points per game on better than 53% shooting from the field and 40.7% from three. The wide open looks he is getting have resulted in 3.5 made threes per game on 8.6 attempts a night, in 3 of his last 5 games he’s knocked down at least 5 threes with the highlight being a 9-for-16 night in the loss to Golden State. Going up against Lu Dort will be a challenge undoubtedly, but Reaves has faired well in recent meetings scoring 15+ points in 2 of the last 3 games. The Lakers are counting on his production to get a massive win here on Sunday and there is no doubt in my mind he will deliver.
Getting Chet Holmgren back into form is the main priority for the Oklahoma City Thunder over these remaining 5 regular season games. We’ve seen flashes of brilliance from the big man over his last 10 games, he is once again starting to lift up his level of play as we get closer to the postseason. He’s on a run of back-to-back games with 20+ points against very solid defenses in Detroit and Houston. The three-ball has been less consistent than we would like here, but because of that we are getting +122 odds for him to hit a pair. He just went off in the game against Houston knocking down 6 of 8 attempts from downtown, that’s bumped his efficiency to 38.1% over the last 10 games. With no Anthony Davis to worry about on the offensive and defensive ends here, Chet could be in line for a productive game. He’s averaging 15.3 points per game in the last 4 meetings with the Lakers, knocking down at least one three in all 4 games. In his last game at Crypto.com Arena he went 2-for-6 from downtown, with the Lakers last 3 opponents shooting 39.8% from downtown, I have a lot of faith in Holmgren to get the job done here.
