No team arguably has given Miami more angst and agony over the past two months than the Bulls, who have twice beaten the Heat with big comebacks and surpassed Miami in the standings despite attrition from trades and injuries.
And now the Bulls stand in the way of Miami’s bid to secure a home game in the play-in tournament.
The Heat enter Wednesday night’s road game against No. 9 Chicago needing a win to essentially keep alive hopes of surpassing Chicago should those teams finish 9th and 10th in the conference. It has become the most important game of the season for a Heat franchise that has played in dozens of games with far greater stakes.
“I think it’s a lot of fun,” Erik Spoelstra said, looking ahead to Wednesday after the Heat’s 117-105 win against Philadelphia on Monday night. “Nobody in our locker room is cynical enough to think otherwise…. This is what the league is right now. Just embrace it and enjoy it. This is going to be a great night. It’s going to feel like a playoff game and that’s fun.”
A loss in Chicago would leave Miami (36-43) with a poor-but-not-impossible chance of finishing higher than 10th in the Eastern Conference and a very slim chance of finishing higher than ninth.
In a 9 vs. 10 play-in game next Wednesday, the ninth seed would get homecourt, and the 10th seed would need to win two play-in games to advance to a first-round series against Cleveland.
If the Bulls (36-42) win Tuesday night’s late game against the Cavaliers, it could then clinch finishing ahead of Miami in the final standings by beating the Heat on Wednesday. Even if the Bulls lose Tuesday’s late game in Cleveland, they would practically vanquish all Heat hopes of surpassing Chicago by beating Miami (36-43) on Wednesday.
That’s because the Bulls already have clinched the tiebreaker against the Heat by winning the first two games of the season series. So Miami would need to finish one game ahead of the Bulls to jump Chicago – something that’s unrealistic if the Bulls beat the Heat for a third time on Wednesday.
After Wednesday’s game, both teams have easy remaining schedules: Chicago is home to Washington on Friday and at Philadelphia on Sunday. The Heat plays at New Orleans on Friday and plays host to the Wizards on Sunday.
While a Heat loss on Wednesday would, for all practical purposes, eliminate Miami’s chances of getting out of the 9-10 play-in, there would be a slim chance to move up to ninth (ahead of Atlanta but behind Chicago).
If the Heat loses Wednesday, Miami could finish ahead of Atlanta by winning its final two games and Atlanta losing three of its final four (Tuesday’s late game at Orlando, at Brooklyn, at Philadelphia and vs. Orlando). Such a scenario would leave the Heat and Hawks with 44 losses, but Miami would win the tiebreaker by virtue of a better division record. So in that case, Miami would host a 9-10 play-in game vs. the Hawks.
The Heat would remain in play for an eighth seed with a win Wednesday, and with a good chance to move to eighth if Tuesday’s late games break their way: a Cleveland victory against Chicago and a Magic win against Atlanta. Those two results late Tuesday would mean Miami would be the ninth seed by winning out (including Wednesday in Chicago) and would be the 8th seed by winning out and Atlanta losing one of its final three after (hypothetically) losing Tuesday.
The seventh and eighth seeds meet in next Tuesday’s Eastern play-in game, with the winner advancing to play Boston in the playoffs and the loser meeting the winner of the 9 vs. 10 play-in game for the right to play Cleveland in the playoffs. The higher seed always hosts the play-in game.
“We know what’s at stake,” Herro said of Wednesday’s game. “It will be much harder to win two games play-in on the road as opposed to hopefully trying to get one at home will help us.”.
Returning to Chicago on Wednesday will conjure memories of one of the nightmares of the Heat season, a 133-124 loss on Feb. 5, a game in which Miami squandered an 12-point lead with 10:55 left in the fourth quarter. The Bulls closed the game on a 37-16 run, delivering another dark chapter in a season of blown fourth quarter leads.
Then the Bulls administered more pain on March 9, rallying from a 17-point first half deficit and an 11-point fourth quarter hole to beat Miami again, this time at Kaseya Center. Chicago outscored the Heat 36-20 in the fourth quarter of that game.
If history repeats itself on Wednesday, exactly one month after that March 9 debacle, then Miami likely will be doomed to the 9-10 play-in and more than likely playing that game on the road.
