Can Real Madrid pump a three-goal lead at the Bernabeu and keep Arsenal out of their net? Tall order. It might get lost in the discussion of dreamy remontada hysteria: Maybe Real Madrid can score one early, a second by half-time, and a third sometime between minute 45 and 90 — but can they keep a clean sheet?
Two things. 1: Arsenal have not conceded three goals in one game in one-and-a-half years; and 2: Arsenal can score. Bukayo Saka looks back to rhythm now since retuning from injury, and Mikel Merino is making fans forget about the injuries to Gabriel Jesus and Kai Havertz. Real Madrid will be forced to make a push. Saka and Martinelli will have more room to blitz behind a more aggressive defensive line. Maybe Real Madrid will score and Arsenal will buckle. It’s just as likely Arsenal can score and kill the tie, rendering the remaining minutes on the clock a torture chamber for Real Madrid fans.
Real Madrid will need to do a lot of things better. Among them, detecting the space that Merino operates in between and behind the two central midfielders. Arsenal are, positionally, at a very high level. They have fluidity, but within a guided framework, where players must occupy different zones to ensure the team plays with verticality and outlets are always available to them. Real Madrid played in a zonal mid-block for large stretches at the Emirates, and weren’t compact enough to stop dangerous passes into the attackers. Once Saka or Martinelli got the ball on the wings, they could create danger, and Merino could take advantage of poor marking in the box.
Real Madrid’s defense gives little-to-no confidence in keeping a clean sheet. Rio Ferdinand put it this way last week: Real Madrid will need to score four (or five), because you have to put Arsenal down for one goal at least. There are multiple sins Carlo Ancelotti’s men commit on defense: The front two don’t press or cover-shadow. Arsenal play the pass through one set of lines, then from there, it’s math: There is always an open man to hit as the defense scrambles, one late rotation at a time.
In this particular clip, you’ll see two struggles in one: Real Madrid can’t deal with Arsenal’s high press, nor can they deal with a the attacking surge of the full-back
Timber doesn’t succeed in the final execution, but his dribbling ability gives Real Madrid all kinds of problems. Bellingham collapses on Ødegaard. Timber puts Alaba in a blender. The way Arsenal use their full-backs and provide numbers in attack — Real Madrid haven’t found an answer. Their own full-back situation is a weak-point, and not well equipped to fight in those situations.
This particular sequence from the first leg has been on my mind for the entire week:
That’s Thibaut Courtois leaping up to catch a corner, with eight Arsenal players in the final third, and a chance to throw the ball to Vinicius Jr in transition with Arsenal back-peddling. What you can’t see off the ball: Arsenal have already blocked a potential pass to Vinicius knowing Real Madrid’s goal is to find him in transition if the set-piece fails, and the entire team moves to their spot so quickly, that Courtois is forced to hold on to the ball. What you can’t hear in the above clip: The entire stadium applauds the effort to get back. Courtois is stuck with the easy pass.
What eventually happens in that sequence: Real Madrid knock it around without purpose or verticality, with Arsenal ushering them to non-threatening zones with their shape off the ball.
The (very) few times Real Madrid did have a chance to attack space in transition, one of three things happened: 1) They were too slow to break; 2) Arsenal recovered so quickly they erased the counter-attack; or 3) The passing from Real Madrid was horrendous.
No such margin of error exists on Wednesday. Vinicius and Mbappe need to unearth their best games of the season; Asencio and Rüdiger will have to put out fires marshalling a high line; Modric needs to turn back the clock; Ceballos will need to play like he’s been in rhythm and healthy for two months. The reality is, I should go down the entire list of players who need to churn out season-defining performances.
It’s a lot to ask against an efficient two-way team that is well-drilled tactically.
