The third-seeded Los Angeles Lakers and the sixth-seeded Minnesota Timberwolves play Game 3 of a Western Conference best-of-7, first-round series Friday at Target Center in Minneapolis. The series is tied 1-1. Tip-off is scheduled for 9:30 p.m. ET (ESPN). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s NBA odds around the Lakers vs. Timberwolves odds and make our expert NBA picks and predictions for the best bets.
The Lakers covered as 5.5-point home favorites in a 94-85 win over the Timberwolves in Game 2 Tuesday with the Under (212) hitting — and we cashed on the side. F Luka Doncic finished with 31 points, 12 rebounds and 9 assists, and F LeBron James added 21 points. The Lakers bounced back after a 117-95 loss as 4.5-point home favorites in Saturday’s Game 1 — the Under (215) cashed in that one as well.
Timberwolves F Julius Randle had 27 points in Game 2 vs. his former team — Randle was drafted by L.A. in 2014 — and G Anthony Edwards added 25 points. Minnesota trailed 34-15 after a lopsided first quarter and never got closer than 9 points the rest of the way.
Each team covered the spread twice in their 4 regular-season meetings, with the Under going 4-0.
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:23 a.m. ET.
Moneyline (ML): Lakers +125 (bet $100 to win $125) | Timberwolves -150 (bet $150 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): Lakers +3.5 (-115) | Timberwolves -3.5 (-105)
Over/Under (O/U): 205.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
While Minnesota (-150) will probably win on its home floor, backing what I consider the lesser team at this price isn’t a risk I’m willing to take.
The Lakers went from 5.5-point home favorites in Game 2 to 3.5-point road underdogs in Game 3. While I understand home court is worth more in the playoffs and the zig-zag theory is upgrading Minnesota, 3.5 points is too high of a spread.
The Timberwolves went just 14-22 ATS (38.9%) as home favorites during the regular season — according to TeamRankings.com — frequently failing to win by margin. There’s little reason to expect that to suddenly change in the postseason.
