Liverpool’s position in the Premier League table would be significantly different if it weren’t for the influence of VAR (Video Assistant Referee). According to a study conducted by ESPN, the Reds would be five points better off and would currently sit two points clear of Arsenal in second place.
This analysis, which you can read in full by clicking here takes into account various VAR decisions that have affected Liverpool’s results throughout the season. One notable incident that wasn’t included in the study occurred during Liverpool’s match against Tottenham Hotspur.
Luis Díaz had a goal wrongly ruled out, despite being onside. The on-field decision had been to award the goal, but VAR mistakenly believed otherwise. However, this incident wasn’t considered for the table because it wasn’t the first VAR incident in the game and VAR also didn’t overturn the on-field decision of offside, meaning the technology made no difference to the outcome.
Another significant VAR decision that has gone against Liverpool was Curtis Jones’ red card during the match against Ange Postecoglou’s side. ESPN highlights this as the biggest decision to go against Jürgen Klopp’s team this season. With 11 players on the pitch, Liverpool would have secured a 1-0 victory according to ESPN’s VAR Effect table, resulting in a six-point swing in its favor compared to Spurs.
The opening day match against Chelsea also saw a crucial VAR decision that impacted Liverpool’s result. Mohamed Salah’s goal in the 29th minute was ruled out for offside, with the Reds already leading 1-0. If the goal had been given, ESPN predicts that Liverpool would have gone on to win the game instead of settling for a draw.
The VAR Effect table takes into account five key factors: team form, time of incident, expected goals (xG) at the time of incident, team strength, and impact of the incident. These factors contribute to a revised Premier League table that reflects the influence of VAR on results.
The revised table without VAR shows Liverpool at the top with 22 points, followed by Arsenal with 20 points and Tottenham Hotspur with 19 points. Manchester City, Brighton, West Ham United, Newcastle United, Aston Villa, Chelsea, and Manchester United complete the top 10.
This analysis highlights the significant impact that VAR decisions can have on a team’s position in the league table. Liverpool’s position would have been much stronger without certain VAR incidents going the wrong way. It also emphasizes the importance of accurate and consistent VAR decisions in ensuring fair competition.
It’s worth noting that last season, Liverpool experienced several key VAR decisions that changed results in its favor. This season’s turnaround reflects a shift in fortunes for the Reds in terms of VAR influence.
While VAR aims to improve decision-making and reduce errors in football, it continues to generate controversy and debate. The study conducted by ESPN sheds light on how VAR decisions can shape the outcome of matches and ultimately impact a team’s standing in the league.
As Liverpool and other teams navigate through the remainder of the season, VAR will undoubtedly continue to play a significant role. The hope is that its implementation will become more consistent and transparent, leading to fairer outcomes and a more level playing field for all clubs.
