Manchester City vs Burnley, Wednesday 7.30pm
Manchester City vs Burnley, Wednesday 7.30pm
It is 1/12 with Sky Bet for them to make it 14 on the spin. It is safe to say the outright markets make zero appeal on what could be a long evening for Vincent Kompany’s young side.
However, it is that youthful exuberance that has led me to a potential betting angle.
City can be vulnerable to quick transitions in wide areas and Burnley have a talent in Wilson Odobert who may just exploit that space. He has been in superb form, averaging 2.75 completed take-ons per 90 minutes this season which ranks him seventh in the entire league for that particular metric. Not bad for a 19-year-old.
It is that ability to carry the ball against this City team that makes his prices for a shot on target at 6/4 with Sky Bet and his anytime goalscorer price of 17/2 worth a second look
SCORE PREDICTION: 5-1
Tottenham vs Brentford, Wednesday 7.30pm
Tottenham’s style of football makes them very watchable but, from a betting standpoint, they are not a team I like carrying my money such is their vulnerability to being counter-attacked.
Burnley, Bournemouth, Brighton and Everton managed to create a total expected goal output of 8.2 – that is an average of 2.05 per 90 – in recent meetings. Spurs were fortunate to come out of that run of games with three victories.
A look at the underlying numbers does paint the picture of overperformance this season. Spurs have conceded 143 corners – only Sheffield United have conceded more – while the 208 shots conceded from inside the box is a worrying sign as only Burnley, West Ham, Sheffield United and Luton have shipped more. The underlying expected goals against figure is not pretty either having conceded 36.37 expected goals against this season – it is the same as Burnley and the joint-16th worst record in the league.
And while the return to fitness of Cristian Romero and Micky van de Ven is an obvious boost, Tottenham remain far too short in the market at 4/7 with Sky Bet for this tricky encounter.
Brentford, fresh from a momentum-swinging win over Nottingham Forest, are always outsiders to respect when outsiders on the road.
With Ivan Toney in the team last season they avoided defeat at Man City, Arsenal, Chelsea, Brighton, West Ham and Spurs. They can do so again once more at a generous 5/4.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2
Liverpool vs Chelsea, Wednesday 8.15pm
One of Jurgen Klopp’s traits which stands him out above the rest as a football manager is his ability to nurture young talent and develop them into elite footballers.
This is the path Curtis Jones is currently on. Jones’ name is now one of the first down on Klopp’s teamsheet as he has become the midfielder the manager desires in the heart of his engine room.
These all-action performances are proving to be the glue that knits the side together and are leading to a huge spike in his attacking output since returning from injury in December, especially at Anfield. In his last five starts in home matches, Jones has had 19 shots, 10 of them on target, and scored five goals. He epitomises what this new-look Liverpool are all about.
Those sorts of averages make his prices across the shots and goals market very appealing for this fixture. Take your pick on the Evens available for him to have two or more shots, the 3/1 on three or more shots and the 9/2 anytime as potential angles in as Liverpool are set to motor on.
SCORE PREDICTION: 3-1
West Ham vs Bournemouth, Thursday 7.30pm
I am not overly keen on investing in pro West Ham angles considering the attacking talent they have missing in Lucas Paqueta and Mohammed Kudus but the 5/2 with Sky Bet on Danny Ings scoring does look too good to pass up. The striker looked more like his sharp and busy self in the 2-2 draw with Sheffield United, playing a part in both goals during a performance where he racked up an expected goals total of 0.82 from his six shots.
The markets have ignored the fact Ings is a finisher at this level, who has worked at a goal ratio average of 0.45 goals per 90 minutes throughout a Premier League career that has seen him score 70 goals.
He can get on the scoresheet in what looks a very tricky game to call from an outright perspective.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-2
Wolves vs Manchester United, Thursday 8.15pm
There remains a stench of mid-table obscurity about Manchester United.
At the time of writing on Monday, they are exactly 16 points off Liverpool at the top of the Premier League and exactly 16 points off Luton Town in the relegation zone. Erik ten Hag’s side are not underperforming according to the metrics either – with their expected points data ranking them as the 11th best team in the Premier League.
There is no obvious evidence to suggest a change in fortunes is on the horizon, either.
With all that in mind, Wolves are not being given the respect they deserve in the outright market with 7/4 available with Sky Bet on a home win.
When you assess their home form this season of being unbeaten in their last nine despite facing Manchester City, Aston Villa, Newcastle, Tottenham and Chelsea, then you start to question why they are being installed as outsiders for this contest. With Pedro Neto back, looking fit and fresh after firing in the 2-0 win over West Brom, I’d be leaning towards a Wolves play here with the draw no bet option at Evens a shrewd way of giving yourself some insurance if the game ends level.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1
