As the first few races of the 2024 F1 season unfolded, Max Verstappen and Red Bull looked a force to be reckoned with after notching up several victories. However, with the gaps amongst the field closing in as the campaign has progressed, the Dutchman and his team’s position at the top has come under threat from a number of their rivals.
Six other drivers have claimed race wins across the season so far, allowing for an increasingly tight battle in the standings to develop, while Red Bull will need to fight back in the second half of the year if they want to maintain their lead in the constructors’ championship.
It is clearly all to play for, with several names still mathematically in with a chance of taking the fight to the reigning world champions during the final 10 races of 2024. So who is most likely to pose a challenge to Verstappen and Red Bull? Let’s take a look at the candidates…
The drivers:
Lando Norris
The man who currently looks to be Verstappen’s biggest threat – both in terms of statistics and form – is Norris, with the McLaren driver in second place of the standings.
While he might be 78 points away from the reigning champion, Norris has earned praise for his performances throughout the year so far, having taken his debut victory in Miami as well as coming agonisingly close on other occasions.
After stating that he needed a “reset” over the summer break following some errors across recent races, it will be fascinating to see if Norris returns with an added sense of momentum – and a readiness to battle Verstappen – when the campaign resumes.
Charles Leclerc
Leclerc has done well to maintain his position of third in the drivers’ championship, given the mixed fortunes that Ferrari have endured of late. The Monegasque holds 177 points, putting him 22 behind Norris and 100 away from Verstappen.
Bouncing back from this might be a big ask – particularly with the likes of Oscar Piastri and the Mercedes duo (see below) closing in – but Leclerc had a decent outing at the last event before the summer break in Belgium, where he claimed pole position before taking third place on Sunday, his best race result since he took victory at home in Monaco.
Leclerc has voiced hopes that bringing new parts during the second half could help the team to “be challenging for wins again”, so there could still be more to come from the Scuderia yet.
Oscar Piastri
As things stand Piastri occupies fourth place, where he sits just 10 points away from Leclerc. But, given the Australian’s form in recent races – having claimed four podiums, including his first F1 victory in Hungary – it appears likely that he could leapfrog the Ferrari driver if the current state of play remains.
Not only does Piastri have a fast McLaren and a calm demeanour going in his favour, but the 23-year-old entered the summer break off the back of a good run, given his win at the Hungaroring was followed by a stronger weekend than Norris in Belgium.
This all hints at Piastri continuing to give his team mate a run for his money when the season resumes. But it will be interesting to see if McLaren decide to back Norris as their main championship contender to take the fight to Verstappen…
Carlos Sainz
It’s fifth in the championship right now for Sainz during what has been an eventful year for the Spaniard both on and off the track. From losing his seat at Ferrari for 2025 before the current season had even begun, through to having to sit out Round 2 in Saudi Arabia following surgery for appendicitis, followed by an incredible comeback drive to victory in Australia two weeks later…
That win was obviously a highlight in Sainz’s season and career, but sadly the rest of the campaign has not quite matched up to that amid Ferrari’s recent struggles. Despite this, Sainz has kept himself regularly in the points as well as scoring the occasional podium.
The 29-year-old has a 115-point deficit to Verstappen so his chances of challenging the Dutchman appear slim, but he will certainly be hoping to end his final year racing for the Scuderia on a high before he moves to Williams next season.
Lewis Hamilton
Hamilton has seen his season come alive across recent races, following a tough start to his last campaign with Mercedes before he becomes a Ferrari driver. Round 9 in Canada hinted at a change in the Silver Arrows’ fortunes, with Hamilton taking a then-season-best fourth.
Since then the Briton has rarely been off the podium – with the exception of Austria – and has become the only man other than Verstappen to take multiple race wins this season thanks to his victories in Great Britain and Belgium.
That slow start to the year might have left Hamilton down in sixth on 150 points, but the seven-time world champion perhaps knows better than anybody how to take a fight to Verstappen and his recent run of form puts him in good standing for the second half of the season.
Sergio Perez
In contrast to Hamilton, a strong run in the opening races seemed to tail off for Perez, whose position at Red Bull has come under increased scrutiny following a run of difficult weekends.
Knowing that his seat looks to be safe for the rest of the year might help the Mexican to bounce back when the season gets under way again, but he remains a distant seventh in the standings, 146 points away from Verstappen.
The priority for Red Bull will be for Perez to regularly score points again in order to secure their position in the constructors’, as well as supporting Verstappen in his championship bid.
George Russell
Having been disqualified from the Belgian Grand Prix after taking victory, Russell lost out on a haul of points, leaving him down in P8 of the drivers’ standings on a tally of 116.
Like Hamilton, the Briton’s season has picked up since the performance of the W15 improved around the time of the Canadian Grand Prix, though it is the 39-year-old who looked to have the edge during recent races.
Given his 161-point deficit to Verstappen, Russell statistically has the most ground to make of the top eight drivers if he hopes to battle the reigning champion. While this may be a challenge, he will surely be keen to bounce back from his lost win at Spa-Francorchamps when the season resumes.
Fernando Alonso
Okay, this is quite an unlikely one, but on paper Alonso could still technically beat Verstappen – albeit in a very unusual scenario where the Spaniard would have to win at most of the upcoming 10 races, while Verstappen and his closest rivals would all need to be scoring practically no points.
Currently sitting some distance from the top eight drivers, Alonso is best of the rest with 49 points in a lonely P9. The 43-year-old might have very long odds on claiming a third world title in the immediate future, but he will be hopeful of a better second half of the campaign given the disappointing start that Aston Martin have faced.
The teams:
McLaren
The battle for the constructors’ championship is where things get particularly interesting. Red Bull are facing a very real threat from McLaren; Norris and Piastri’s consistent run near the front of the pack across recent races has seen the Woking squad overtake Ferrari for second place in the standings.
Sitting on 366 points, they are now just 42 points behind leaders Red Bull. Given the form of the Milton Keynes outfit at the start of the campaign, such a statistic perhaps would have been unthinkable back then.
As previously mentioned, Red Bull need Perez to score higher points in order to protect their position – while Verstappen will be hoping to return to winning ways, having not claimed a victory since the Spanish Grand Prix in June. McLaren, meanwhile, could potentially overhaul the Milton Keynes outfit with another strong result like the team’s one-two finish in Hungary.
Ferrari
Behind McLaren in third place are Ferrari, who are now 21 points behind the papaya team and 63 away from Red Bull. The Scuderia have slipped backwards following a drop off from some stronger points hauls earlier in the season.
Mercedes, meanwhile, look to have moved ahead of them given their form across recent races, though the Silver Arrows are still some distance away in fourth place.
Can a focus on delivering further upgrades help Ferrari to bounce back in the second half of the campaign and move forwards from P3?
Mercedes
With 142 less points than Red Bull – and only 10 races remaining – Mercedes’ chances of fighting for the title are statistically much lower than that of McLaren and Ferrari. Indeed, Hamilton has labelled a championship challenge as “high hopes”.
However, the team’s turnaround as the first half of the season progressed has put them firmly in the battle amongst the top four – and, in fact, sometimes at the head of that scrap, with the Silver Arrows victorious at three of the last four races.
If this run continues, Mercedes will surely move themselves up the order and become even more ensconced in the constructors’ fight.
Aston Martin
As is the case with Alonso’s position in the drivers’ standings, Aston Martin occupy a solitary fifth place; on 73 points, they are 193 away from Mercedes in fourth – and a whopping 335 off leaders Red Bull – while sixth-placed RB hold just under half the amount of Aston’s points.
This marks what the team themselves have acknowledged to be a disappointing first half of the year, a stark contrast from their position at the beginning of 2023 where they looked at times to be Red Bull’s closest rivals.
Team Principal Mike Krack has voiced his confidence that the squad will have a better second segment of the campaign, but admitted that their focus will also be on preparing for 2025.
