A lot of folks are worried about the Orioles offense. The unit is in a prolonged slump, and is almost entirely reliant on what Gunnar Henderson can do in order to score runs. It’s not fun! Such significant struggles from the lineup have allowed the team’s pitching staff to fly under the radar, and that’s a shame because there is actually a lot to like right now.
From June 15 through the end of August, the Orioles were one of the worst pitching staffs in baseball. Their 4.88 ERA was 29th in MLB (although their 4.37 xERA and 4.25 xFIP painted a slightly rosier picture). They ranked 21st with 8.39 strikeouts per nine innings, 21st in strikeout-to-walk rate, and 24th with a .255 batting average against. They were in the bottom third of the league in pitching production across the board.
Now, September is only two weeks old, so the data is prone to far more volatility, but so far it is quite promising for the Orioles’ arms.
Since the start of the month, the O’s have a 3.38 ERA (10th in MLB), 3.70 FIP (12th), and 3.50 xFIP (4th). Their starters have compiled a 2.55 ERA, an impressive number in any context. Meanwhile, the relievers have struggled to a 5.15 ERA, but that is in stark contrast to their 3.74 FIP and 3.98 xFIP, which both indicate far more competent performances.
Why has it taken so long for the staff to get itself sorted out? Injuries likely have a lot to do with it. While there have been injuries throughout the Orioles’ roster this season, the pitching staff has been disproportionately impacted.
They came into the year knowing that all-world closer Félix Bautista was out for the year. That led the front office to sign Craig Kimbrel as their closer. That seemed a shrewd move in the first half of the season (2.80 ERA), but he has fallen apart in the second half (7.71 ERA), triggering a relief crisis.
The starters have endured endless injuries. Kyle Bradish and John Means both missed the first month or so of the season, and then went on the shelf for the remainder of the season after making just a handful of starts each. And that came after Tyler Wells went down after making three appearances. Three season-ending injuries on your pitching staff is hard to patch up. Add in lengthy IL stints from Grayson Rodriguez, Dean Kremer, Jacob Webb, and Danny Coulombe, and you really have yourself a mess.
Corbin Burnes has been the only constant in the rotation. At times he has been surrounded by rookie Cade Povich, who has had an up-and-down season, Cole Irvin, who has now been DFA’d twice this year, and Albert Suárez, who had come into this year seven seasons removed from his previous big league appearance. It is commendable how well this rag tag group has held things together for much of the season, although they have shown serious cracks at times.
Despite all of that, the pitching seems to be coming together at a crucial point in the season. And given the change in play style that comes with postseason baseball, depth becomes less important while top-end talent shines through.
Burnes has bounced back from a brutal August to have a 1.50 ERA in his first three starts of September. He looks like the staff ace once again. Right behind him is trade deadline addition Zach Eflin. The 30-year-old is yet to allow more than three runs in any start he has made in an Orioles uniform and has gone at least 5.2 innings in each outing as well. He is locked in as the number two. Behind those two, it is a little murky, but luckily they have options.
Rodriguez would probably be the organization’s first choice to pitch a consequential Game 3 of the Wild Card series (if it came to that). But he is not off the IL yet. Signs are pointing in the right direction (he has thrown two bullpens this month), but there could be some question about how long of a leash he would have.
If Rodriguez is not ready—or maybe he can only go three innings or so—they could turn to Kremer. The righty has allowed just one earned run over his last 13 innings. Povich and Suárez could also be in the mix. Povich has flashed during a rookie year that has poor topline numbers. Suárez has been a savior for the team during their injury crisis and is coming of of a six-inning, one-run outing against the Red Sox. He could be the safest bet.
Whatever the case, the Orioles probably feel decent about a front three of Burnes, Eflin, and Rodriguez (we’ll see). That is a formidable trio at any time, but particularly in light of the number of significant injuries suffered by the pitching staff.
Then it goes to the bullpen. As mentioned earlier, things are improving there. Now that Kimbrel has been removed from a role of any significance, everyone else has fallen in line. Most importantly, Seranthony Domínguez has taken the closer role for himself.
Domínguez is a perfect 9-for-9 in save opportunities for the Orioles. In four appearances this month, he has accumulated a 14.54 strikeout rate without issuing any walks. Home runs are a problem for him, but that is really the only area where he needs to improve. He has been a stellar deadline addition.
Around Domínguez, the bullpen is melding together nicely. Webb is fresh off the IL to reinforce the middle innings. Coulombe should be right behind him to do the same. Yennier Cano has been remarkably consistent and seems to be the guy Brandon Hyde plans to use in the game’s most crucial moments, regardless of inning. Keegan Akin is the left-handed version of Domínguez—at least, in terms of statistics. He has been loading up on strikeouts without issuing walks, but he needs to keep the ball in the park. Cionel Pérez is scary to watch at times, but he usually comes through. Add in whichever “starters” don’t make the postseason rotation, and you have a group that is deep and capable of striking out opponents. That wasn’t always true for this bunch.
The Orioles will not make a deep postseason run on pitching alone. While the arms have improved since their injury-induced, mid-summer swoon, they are not in the conversation as being one of the league’s elite staffs as currently constructed. They may be capable of one-off performances where they entirely shutdown the opposition, but that will not be a daily occurrence
But what they have shown themselves capable of is keeping games within reach. It will be up to the offense to wake up out of their extended slumber and be closer to the juggernaut they were through mid-June. That might be a lot to ask right now, but it’s the only way in which these Orioles reach their potential.
