F1 2024 champion elect Max Verstappen has “no chance at all” of finishing in the top two at the Las Vegas Grand Prix this weekend on the evidence of Thursday practice.
That is the opinion of Red Bull adviser Helmut Marko, who has admitted the Mercedes W15 is looking “really strong” in Nevada.
Verstappen enters the Las Vegas GP with a 62-point lead over Lando Norris, with the Red Bull driver able to seal a fourth consecutive World Championship this weekend if he finishes ahead of his McLaren rival.
Despite ending a 10-race winless run at the last race in Brazil, Red Bull’s struggles returned on Thursday night in Vegas, where Verstappen could only manage fifth and 17th in FP1 and FP2 respectively.
Both sessions were headed by Mercedes driver Lewis Hamilton, with Norris just 0.011 seconds slower than the seven-time World Champion in second practice.
It emerged after the session that Red Bull are losing up as much as six tenths to their competitors on the straights in Vegas, with the RB20’s rear wing too draggy and the team lacking an alternative this weekend.
Verstappen went on to reveal that Red Bull have “struggled a lot with making the tyres work over one lap especially” on Thursday, claiming it is “like driving on ice at the moment.”
Marko has almost written off any hope of Verstappen sealing the F1 2024 title with a win in Vegas based on the form in practice.
He told Austrian outlet ORF: “With our performance today, we have no chance at all of second place, let alone first place.”
Despite closing in on the Drivers’ title, Red Bull are likely to suffer defeat in the Constructors’ Championship race with the Milton-Keynes based team currently third, 49 points adrift of McLaren, with Verstappen’s team-mate Sergio Perez without a podium finish since April.
Marko feels a fourth straight title for Verstappen will make it “easier” for Red Bull to come to terms with losing their Constructors’ crown, adding: “That has actually been clear for some time, because if you look at the points that Perez scored compared to Max, then you know where we are lacking.
“But now let’s just make sure that the world championship title is wrapped up for Max, then it will be easier for us to get over the constructors’ title.”
Having returned to winning ways ahead of the summer break with victories in Austria, Britain and Belgium, Mercedes have largely struggled across the second half of F1 2024 with Hamilton and team-mate George Russell limited to just a single podium finish between them.
Marko is wary of the “really strong” Mercedes, but suspects the competitive order could alter as grip ramps up on the Vegas circuit.
He said: “We’ve often seen this from Mercedes this year, that they are suddenly extremely strong and capable of winning.
“But let’s wait and see how it goes tomorrow. The more grip there is on the track, the order can change again.”
Toto Wolff, the Mercedes team boss, agreed that track evolution could prove to be the W15’s undoing this weekend given the car’s trend of performing in low-grip and cold conditions in F1 2024.
Yet he is hopeful that the car can remain in the hunt for victory, telling media including PlanetF1.com: “I think we are dirty track champions. FP1 is always great and then the moment the grip kicks in, we’ve seen that the performances deteriorate.
“Having said that, I think the gap was pretty big. It’s the biggest that we’ve seen so far in FP1, so we’ve got to spray some dust for all the sessions tomorrow, in qualifying or something.
“But I don’t believe this kind of advantage to the other teams is going to last.
“I would very much hope that we’re not falling behind like we did in the past on some of the tracks, but remain competitive, fight in the front.”
He later added: “It was a pretty good start, but I don’t want to think too much of it.
“We’ve been quick in some of the early sessions during the weekends when there is not a lot of grip so if we can continue to be among the frontrunners tomorrow that would be great.
“We’ve been quick in some of the early sessions during the weekends when there is not a lot of grip so if we can continue to be among the frontrunners tomorrow that would be great.
“It suits our car better, the cold. Spa was cold and Silverstone was cold.
“But it’s not entirely high-speed here but there are a few traction-limited slow corners. This will be key for us to manage that.”
