The final spot in the NBA Final Four will be decided May 18 when Oklahoma City hosts Denver in Game 7.
Denver is 5-4 in Game 7s in franchise history, including one just two weeks ago when they beat the Clippers in the first round. Oklahoma City is 2-2 in Game 7s, with their last one in 2020 against the Rockets. Only two Thunder players remain from that game.
This isn’t my first Game 7. I’ve watched this weird Western Conference series a lot. Here’s how it breaks down.
Oklahoma City is anywhere from eight to 8.5-point favorites at home against Denver, with the total at 213.5. There’s a lot of money coming in on the Nuggets, who have covered the spread in the last four games of this series.
Denver is 8-4-1 against the spread in the playoffs, while the Thunder is 3-7. The series has been a 3-3 split over/under.
The Thunder have failed to cover the spread in seven of their last eight games, but have won 13 of their last 14 games after a loss. OKC has led at halftime in nine of its last 10 games against the Nuggets.
We wouldn’t even be here for Game 7 if not for the play of Denver reserve Julian Strawther, who scored 15 points and gave Denver some much-needed offense. It was the first time Strawther hit double figures since a Feb. 27 loss to the Bucks.
The average margin of victory in this series has been 13 points. The average total has been 222.3. I love the over number today.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander was a non-factor in Game 6 after getting four first-half fouls. At home in this series, he’s gone over 30 points each time.
Nuggets superstar Nikola Jokic has been a beast the last two games, averaging 36.5 points and shooting 66.7 percent from the floor. OKC can’t stop him when he gets going, but neither can anyone else.
Nuggets at Thunder Game 7 Prediction
I see a lot of the money is coming in on the Nuggets, and I’m ready to veer the other way. I like OKC to win on the moneyline, but it comes down to this: can they cover the eight points?
I believe they will. OKC star Jalen Williams was horrible in Game 6, shooting just 3-16 from the floor, but when he gets going, he’s the perfect complement to SAG (the Julius Randle to Anthony Edwards). I don’t trust that the Nuggets will get another off-the-bench performance from Julian Strawther again.
To me, one of the biggest themes in the NBA playoffs so far is that youth is being served. There’s no LeBron, no Steph Curry, not even Jayson Tatum left in the playoffs. OKC will be comfortable at home, take the lead early, and win going away.
